In a move that could potentially unsettle US-China relations, President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday his intention to speak with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te. This would mark an unprecedented step for a sitting US president, as such direct communication between the leaders of the US and Taiwan has not occurred since the US formally recognized Beijing over Taipei in 1979. While speaking to reporters at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, Trump stated, “I’ll speak to him. I speak to everybody … We’ll work on that, the Taiwan problem.” Taiwan’s foreign ministry responded positively to Trump’s remarks, indicating Lai would be eager to engage in dialogue with the US leader.
This comes against a backdrop of complex diplomatic tensions. Back in 2016, as president-elect, Trump broke with decades of diplomatic convention by speaking with then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen, leading to a formal complaint from China and subsequent attempts by Trump’s team to downplay the call’s significance. Historically, Beijing has been wary of US-Taiwan interactions, seeing Taiwan as a breakaway province, and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control. The US, on its part, has maintained a longstanding policy of military support for Taiwan as a deterrent to potential Chinese military aggression.
Trump’s recent declaration marks the second time in a week that he has expressed his intention to communicate with Lai, following a meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping. This has dispelled notions that his initial statement was a mere slip. Despite the public pronouncement, a call between the leaders has not been scheduled yet, and the White House has not provided details on when such a conversation might take place or the topics that would be covered. Similarly, China’s embassy in Washington has not issued any immediate response.
Within his administration, Trump has been noted for his approval of extensive arms sales to Taiwan, more than any of his predecessors. However, he has also indicated that future arms deals could serve as leverage in negotiations. Even though Trump has lauded his relationship with Xi as “amazing,” uncertainty lingers over a major weapons sale to Taiwan worth up to $14 billion. In a possible bid to gain leverage, Beijing is reportedly delaying approval for a potential visit to China by the Pentagon’s undersecretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, pending Trump’s decision on the arms deal.
Despite Trump’s overtures, his reference to the “Taiwan problem” resonates with Beijing’s narrative, creating mixed signals for Taipei. President Lai, whom Beijing labels a separatist, has stated that he would affirm Taiwan’s commitment to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait if given the chance to speak with Trump. Lai has also accused China of undermining peace through its military expansion in the Indo-Pacific region. He emphasized that Taiwan’s democratic and free lifestyle should not be seen as provocative. With Taiwan being the fourth-largest trading partner of the US, primarily due to its export of advanced semiconductors, the island’s strategic significance to the US remains crucial.
